Just eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
