Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
